Decision Making Model for Designing Islamic Postgraduate Education Management Curriculum Based on 21st Century Skills Using Extended Bayes Theorem
Keywords:
Extended Bayes Theorem, 21st Century Skills-Based Curriculum, Islamic Education Management, Decision Making, Islamic Higher EducationAbstract
The development of technology and changes in global dynamics require higher education institutions, including the Islamic Education Management Study Program (MPI), to design a curriculum that is responsive to 21st century skills. However, in practice, the process of determining curriculum content is still often done subjectively and not based on strong data. This study aims to develop a decision-making model in designing the Postgraduate MPI curriculum using the extended Bayes Theorem approach as a probabilistic quantitative method. The methodology used is a quantitative descriptive approach with data collection techniques through questionnaires, interviews, and documentation studies of lecturers, students, and education practitioners. The data were analyzed using the extended Bayes Theorem formula to determine the posterior probability of each curriculum topic. The five main topics analyzed included Educational Technology Literacy, Data-Based Management, Digital Leadership, Learning Innovation, and Islamic Professional Ethics. The results showed that the topic of Educational Technology Literacy had the highest posterior probability (34.62 % ), followed by Data-Based Management (24.04%) and Digital Leadership (21.79%). These results indicate the importance of strengthening digital competence in Islamic education in the era of the industrial revolution 4.0. The recommendation from this study is that study program managers use data-based approaches such as Bayes' Theorem to develop a curriculum that is adaptive, measurable, and in accordance with global needs, while still maintaining the Islamic values that are the basis of the institution.
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